2016 Enrollment Forecast
Prepared by Jason Wittle
AAB 356 • 4600 S Redwood Road • (801) 957-4090
February 1, 2016
Abstract
• This is a model that attempts to muffle Salt Lake County’s labor market fluctuations impact on SLCC enrollment. This model doesn’t remove the labor market or estimate enrollment in the absence of the labor market. • Currently, Utah has a very strong labor market which is expected to continue for the near future. The model assumes a neutral job market in the intermediate to long-term future. • This forecasting model breaks down enrollment by age, ethnicity, & gender and creates separate forecasts for those subgroups. • Table 1 shows the year by year budget related headcount and FTE forecast estimates with the following results: 1. Stagnation in white enrollment is predicted to continue (driven largely by Salt Lake County’s demographics). 2. HLL enrollment makes up by far the largest growth segment of SLCC headcount growth (Both HLL male and female headcounts nearly double over 10 years). 3. The ten-year growth rate for SLCC is forecasted to be 17.89 percent. 4. Headcount is forecasted to rise from an estimated 23858 to 28533. 5. FTE is forecasted to rises from an estimated 13838 to 16549. • If the labor market is really strong in Salt Lake County (SL County) then these estimates will most likely prove to be too high. • If the labor market is really weak these estimates will most likely prove to be too low.
Table 1: headcount breakdown
Demographic growth plots
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