Enforcing Math Pre-Requisite Expiration: A Simulation Study

Prepared by Jeff Webb
AAB 355-Q • 4600 S Redwood Road • (801) 957-4110
Completed 2017

Abstract

This paper is a follow-up to earlier work on the effect of enforcing the expiration of math pre-requisites (“Math Pre-requisite Study: First Stage,” August 31, 2015; “What if: Estimating the Effect Size of Enforcing Math Pre-Requisites,” September 1, 2015). We seek to answer two main questions arising from previous conversations using statistical simulation:

The official policy (currently not enforced) is that math pre-requisites expire after a year. Sometimes, of course, students use Accuplacer or ACT rather than a previous math course as a pre-requisite. Accuplacer scores also expire after a year, while ACT scores expire after 18 months. Would enforcing this expiration policy for either pre-requisite course or test impact math pass rates?
How might different expiration thresholds impact math pass rates? By “expiration threshold” we mean the allowed (and enforced) time since the pre-requisite course or test. Below we use simulation to examine whether setting different expiration thresholds (0 - 5 semesters for pre-requisite course, 6 - 36 months for ACT, and 0 - 30 months for Accuplacer) would impact math pass rates.

The simulation allows us to assess a policy counterfactual: what would happen to math pass rates if pre-requisite expiration were (1) enforced at the current threshold or (2) enforced at different thresholds?

Results:
Enforcing the current policy would have a small effect on overall pass rates and enforcing continuous enrollment the threshold that shows the largest effect would have a modest effect, improving overall pass rates by between 2% and 3% on average.

$Math Pre-Requisite A Simulation story$

Simulated effects of enforcing pre-requisite expiration at different thresholds, with correction for prior grade

Research Report

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